Aurubis Valuation Gap

Aurubis shares trade around €154, reflecting a 27 % intrinsic discount against a model fair value of €95.43. In the last month the price fell 9.09 %, yet it has generated a 27.27 % return over the past three months and a 76.87 % total shareholder return over 12 months. Analysts attribute the valuation gap to assumptions about future margins and earnings, and to a high capital base driven by significant investment in strategic growth projects, such as the Richmond plant. Those investments are expected to deliver only marginal benefit for one to two years, lowering ROCE below target levels and causing near‑to‑mid‑term earnings, cash flow and margin expansion to lag optimistic forecasts. Improved project execution and the ramp‑up of the Richmond investment could alter this outlook. Aurubis’ current P/E of 11.1 x is below peers’ average of 26.6 x, yet the narrative model still rates the stock as roughly 61.4 % overvalued.